Thursday, March 30, 2006

TCI鍊金秘技——Shareholder Activism

最近,聞名歐洲的TCI基金又在香港出手,這次TCI向股壇狙擊手劉鑾雄的弟弟劉鑾鴻,買下8%的華置(127)股權,每股作價8.33仙,總價值約為14億港元,這意味著,TCI基金,食過番尋味,繼續I love HK!

近年,不少富翁都愛投資對沖基金(Hedge Fund),這些手上大把錢的對沖基金在金魚缸興風作浪,交易廣場的魚缸近年都搞到風急浪高,投資者不小心他們的動向,食多多驚風散都止唔到驚。不過,被TCI基金持股的公司董事會,除了要驚TCI在大市翻雲覆雨,更要小心TCI一貫以來所提倡的股東權益運動(Shareholder Activism),以及所衍生、比香港有股壇長毛之稱的David Webb更要麻煩的作風。

所謂的股東權益運動,就是當上市公司董事局的決定,不符合小股東利益,身為小股東的「有識之士」就糾集力量,令董事局改組、管理層下台。

股東權益運動近年在歐洲搞得如火如荼,更可為小股東帶來相當的回報。據一份在倫敦商學院(London Business School)研討會上發表的獨立學術研究指,英國的法律及文化環境極為適合股東權益運動壯大規模,學者追蹤一個名為Hermes UK Focus Fund 的表現,發現該基金在研究期間,專門鎖定一些股價落後大市或被低估了的公司作投資對象,投資額佔被鎖定公司的1%至15%權益,然後針對公司管治、財務結構等導致股價積弱的原因,作出積極參與,例如與管理層講數,甚至撤換董事會成員。

值得留意的是,該基金很少在公開的股東會高調行事,反而多在幕後發招,以達到提高派息率、改善認股權計劃等目的。而在這些公司大動作的公布期前後,有關公司的股價表現往往脫胎換骨,此亦正是該基金的表現所依。這情況在香港也似曾相識吧。

在亞洲,南韓的三星電子也開始面對類似的小股東集體挑戰,民間非牟利機構民主人民團結組織(People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy;PSPD)去年就曾經在股東大會上,對總裁擔任董事的提案,集結到3.75%的反對票,雖未足以左右大局,但對當地企業界已響起警號,更代表小股東權益運動的起步。正如PSPD在其創立宣言中所言述,"We are going to raise the flag of Solidarity for a society in which everyone can have a voice, and people with diligence and honesty may lead life they deserve.To be the real sovereigns of the country, we should become watchdogs of the government, screening the daily decision-making process it derives its power from." 說明把公民參與的意識帶到公司管治的範疇。

TCI也不是得把口,去年,德國證券交易所(Duetsche Borse)想收購英國倫敦證券交易所。豈知擁有德國證券交易所8%股權的TCI突然出手,一手沽空倫敦證券交易所的股票,另一手聯合美林證券、富達基金等德國證券交易所股東,反對德國證券交易所的收購建議,最後搞到德國證券交易所的行政總裁Werner Seifert在上年五月九日倉皇下台。

股壇長毛David Webb最多令大股東在股東周年大會出醜,但未至於出真金白銀打到董事局落花流水。但TCI可以令你出醜之餘,還要蝕水。那些引TCI做股東的公司,我祝他們的董事會好運。

華置近期動作多多

TCI早前在領匯(823)初嘗甜頭後,繼而收購一系列公司如新世界(017)、百仕達控股(1168)、廈門港務(3378)及保華集團(498)等。這亦難怪,領匯現價17.45元已較招股價10.3元上升69%,而領匯上市不過短短三個月。TCI除了向劉生買入華置股份,亦有傳該基金會向和黃(013)購入3,000萬股華置。近期華置有不少動作,最矚目的當然是集團早前指出有意分拆部分物業如怡東商場及灣仔電腦城等物業作房地產信託基金,估值40至50億元,股息率達5%。

不過,令人意外的是大股東不停出售舊股。兩星期前,劉氏家族及和黃以每股8.3元出售了2.09億股份。如果十分看好公司的前景,接連減持而不是增持的確有點出人意表,而且管理層早前亦透露有意派發特別股息。與TCI比較,究竟劉氏家族和李氏家族在掌握時機方面誰會看得較準? 不要忘記早前新世界的故事。

除了華置外,恒地(012)亦希望推出房地產信託基金,包括25棟寫字樓及零售物業,皇后大道東248號及新都城一期等,價值100億元。該組合的總樓面面積可能為170萬尺,平均出租率為 90%。

REIT基本上是雙贏方案

顧名思義,房地產信託基金(REIT)是一種以房地產為主的基金,運作方式為將物業證券化,令普通投資者也可以參與房地產市場。

自60年代起成立,在美國及澳洲等地亦已相當成熟。不過,香港去年才有第一間房地產信託基金上市,便是經過千辛萬苦才搞掂的領匯(823),不過以規模而言已是全球最大。一般而言,這類基金會以商場以及寫字樓為主,由於這些物業租金收入較穩定,並不似發展物業般波動,所以適合較為保守的投資者,而投資者亦可以較低的價錢購入這些資產。基本上這是一個雙贏方案。
對於持有物業的投資者而言,成立基金可以變相將物業套現,因為這些二三線物業的流通性較低。去年保華集團(498)便沽出保華企業中心予雷曼兄弟的合營企業,將成為日後上市的房地產信託基金的一部分。

與債券不同,房地產信託基金亦有升值潛力,不少基金最少會派發利潤90%予投資者。隨著租金收入上升,可分派的利潤亦會上升。加上資產有升值潛力,無論是通脹或通縮時防守性亦較大。
另外,受上市規條所限,這些基金只可以從事地產業務,這對投資者亦有一定保障。風險是購入資產時的估值會否過高,以及負債比率亦是一個考慮。過高的負債比率會對現金流有不利影響。領匯上市時息率有5.8%,算是不錯,不過自上市以來股價已上升70%,股息率已跌至3.3%。能否不斷改善派息則取決於管理者的能力,當然領匯則是一個相反的例子。股價上升主要是因為效率差,有不少改善的地方,與銀行的收購合併概念相似。

(03-03-06 刊於《am730》)

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